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Today, let’s talk about the housing market in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA).

We’ll look at the two different paths prices are taking for condos and single-family homes. 

It’s important to understand as it can affect your plans for buying or selling a home. 

Understanding can help you make smarter decisions, that could save you money or help find a better deal.

We’re going to look at two key factors that impact prices, supply and demand – as well as how things might play out in future.

Now, let’s dive in.

Understanding housing demand is crucial, as it affects prices and competition in the market. 

Whether you’re buying or selling, knowing the level of demand can help you gauge your expectations and strategy.

Currently, demand across the GTA is low – particularly for condos.

This is due to high interest rates and a slow economy.

Property sales numbers are as low as the pandemic and the 2007-2008 financial crisis.

Housing needs will continue to evolve, so this low level of sales cannot last forever.

Roll in the growth of our population over the past few years, and as rates drop things should pick up.

The supply of homes on the market affects pricing and inventory levels. 

Knowing supply trends helps you predict markets.

It helps you make informed choices about when to buy or sell.

Supply can come from two places;

• sale of property where there isn’t a corresponding buy (like investment, cottages, or estate)

OR

• Building new properties

Supply, in the condo market, is surging. 

Higher interest rates have led investors and cottagers to sell properties, leading to a flood of listings. 

Pre-construction condos are facing challenges at closing.

Some units have dropped in value, and buyers are struggling to qualify due to higher rates.

This is adding more inventory to the market, through assignments and builder resales.

In the last two weeks, we’ve also seen investors and cottagers rushing to list properties.

This is due to the recent announcement of an increase to capital gains tax on the sale of non-primary properties.

On the flip side, Single-Family home supply is at the lowest level we’ve seen in a decade.

Home owners are staying in place rather than looking to move during the high interest rate environment.

Looking ahead to future trends can provide valuable insights for long-term planning.

Understanding where the market is and where it’s headed can help you make decisions today that will benefit you tomorrow.

We’ve seen builders stop or delay condo construction projects, due to decreased demand.

There is currently a ton of inventory coming on to the market over the next 3 years.

Condo prices are down – and could drop further, as there is a ton of inventory to choose from. 

Selling timelines are longer.

As a result, condo development is going to slow over the next few years.

But population growth will continue to outpace development.

In 2 – 3 years we’ll likely see a shortage of supply in the Condo market, and prices will likely jump.  This is still a few years out though.

On the single-family side, builds move faster, but projects have temporarily halted.

The number of units under construction is at decade lows.

Prices for single family homes are steady despite high rates.

As there’s very little inventory and we’re still seeing bidding wars.  

The lack of homes will continue to push up prices.

There’s lots of buyers looking for single-family homes.  

The government must reduce the cost and time of development proposals.

Until they do, we’ll continue to have affordability issues.

Understanding the fundamentals should help with your future housing decisions.

But, keep in mind the housing market is constantly changing.