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I’ve been watching the Toronto market closely, and the November 2025 data tells a story that most headlines are missing.

Market confidence is playing a bigger role than fundamentals right now. The condo market is dealing with a structural supply-demand issue. The detached home market? That’s mostly buyer apprehension about making a big financial decision.

Here’s what you need to understand if you’re thinking about buying in 2026.

Detached homes are down 9% year-over-year. Condos? Only down 1.7% despite a 22% collapse in sales.

That disconnect reveals something important.

The condo market is frozen because sellers are anchored to outdated valuations while buyers have withdrawn. Transactions aren’t happening because of a fundamental disagreement about price. Royal LePage predicts the aggregate home price in Greater Toronto will decrease 4.5% year-over-year in Q4 2026, creating what they call “a rare window” for buyers.

Meanwhile, the detached market slowdown is psychological. Buyers who can afford these properties are hesitating because of headlines and uncertainty.

But here’s what matters: if you’re in a stable position—recession-proof employment, solid income, financial reserves—your actual risk is different from the market’s sentiment.

I work through this with clients by conducting a personal risk audit. What field do you work in? Is your employment secure? Are you in a unique position to take advantage of current trends?

The housing market long term is fairly stable. For it to unwind much more than what we’ve seen would be extreme and unlikely. Being realistic about potential outcomes matters more than reacting to noise.

Move-up buyers are sitting on an opportunity that most people don’t realize exists.

When higher-priced properties decline more than lower-priced properties, the gap between property tiers shrinks. This is the compression effect.

Let me show you the math.

You bought a condo at peak for $750K. It’s now worth $700K. You’ve lost $50K in equity. That feels terrible.

But the semi-detached home you’re eyeing dropped from $1.3M to $1.15M. That’s a $150K decline.

Previously, you could purchase at $1.3M with 20% down. Now, selling for $50K less means you have about $50K less down payment. At the $1.15M purchase price, you fall short of 20% down.

Here’s where the new mortgage insurance rules change everything.

You now qualify to buy with less than 20% down. Starting December 15, 2024, the insured mortgage cap increased from $1 million to $1.5 million, opening up this strategy for move-up buyers in this price range.

The mortgage payments in both scenarios? About $10 difference.

But the $1.15M purchase is on a 25-year amortization rather than the 30-year amortization on the $1.3M purchase. You’re mortgage-free five years sooner on the same home.

That’s a big deal when it comes to retirement planning.

The pace and softness of the market does present real selling risk. Confidence can be shaken when you see how many properties are sitting.

This is where your realtor becomes critical. You need to understand your building’s competitive position—how much else is for sale, whether your unit has unique features, and what pricing strategy will actually move it. In this market, you need differentiation: either the unit stands out, or the price does.

On my end, I stress-test the purchase financials at different sale price scenarios. We identify your floor—the point where the move no longer makes financial sense—and adjust purchase expectations accordingly. That way, you’re making decisions with clear boundaries, not hope.

The power dynamic has completely flipped.

Toronto’s sales-to-new-listings ratio stood at just 29% in September 2025. That’s firmly a buyers’ market. Record-high inventory levels are intensifying competition among sellers and pushing values lower.

You now have negotiation leverage, time to conduct due diligence, ability to include conditions, and choice among multiple properties.

For first-time buyers looking at condos or townhouses, this frozen market is an opportunity. But negotiation and patience are key.

List price means nothing. You need professional help from a realtor to get real market data, real negotiation tactics, and to stay focused on your needs, wants, and price point.

Industry analyst John Pasalis observed that sellers relying on outdated tactics like “pricing a home low to spark a bidding war is often doing more harm than good.” Listings priced below market value now “generate limited offers, leaving sellers to settle for lower prices.”

This psychological shift may deliver more value than waiting for further price drops. The ability to negotiate, inspect, and structure deals on buyer-favorable terms creates tangible advantages.

You have time to optimize. Here’s the playbook.

FHSA and RRSP Strategy

If you haven’t been using your RRSP, get your down payment in there. It needs to be there 90 days before you can use it for the Home Buyers’ Plan.

Moving $60K over can have huge tax refund implications that help with moving costs, furniture, or cash flow next year.

The First Home Savings Account is a massive tool the government rolled out to help with housing affordability. You can contribute $8,000 annually up to a lifetime maximum of $40,000. Contributions are tax-deductible and withdrawals are tax-free for qualifying home purchases.

FHSA withdrawals can be combined with up to $60,000 from RRSP Home Buyers’ Plan for the same qualifying home purchase.

Rethinking the 20% Down Payment

The days when 20% down was the gold standard are over.

With rate incentives and the reintroduction of 30-year amortization on insured mortgages, this is a very affordable and viable path for first-time buyers. The reality of you being in the property or mortgage for 30 years is totally unrealistic. Use it as a tool to get into a home and make it more affordable today.

Take a $700K condo. The difference between 10% down and 20% down is about $280/month on the mortgage but $70K in down payment.

That $70K is a big hurdle. The $280/month in the GTA? That’s dinner and a bottle of wine if you’re lucky.

Here’s the power move: that $70K left invested at 8% market returns is going to return $465/month in year one, and compound from there.

This is your first home. It’s not a forever thing, although it may feel like it. The $70K left invested to compound for retirement is a strategic wealth-building decision. Or it’s working capital toward that forever home in the future.

Lower prices don’t automatically mean affordability.

You still need to carry the mortgage payment. You need to absorb utilities, insurance, and property taxes. The real affordability question is whether the total cost of ownership fits within sustainable cash flow.

That’s a more complex calculation than price alone.

RBC Economics notes that ownership costs have become “the most affordable in three years” due to declining costs driven by lower rates and moderating prices. But you need to model your specific situation.

What are your actual monthly obligations? What’s your income stability? What happens if rates adjust when you renew?

My personal view is that the downward pressure on prices, particularly condos, is temporary.

Builders have stopped building. Construction starts for Toronto condos fell 51% from 2023 to 2024. Completions are projected to drop from 31,396 units in 2025 to just 17,487 units in 2026.

In the next three years, we’re going to be hit with a significant shortage.

Immigration has stopped because it was throttled up way too high for too many years and broke the system. But the Canadian economy relies on steady immigration to grow our population and workforce.

When that returns—and most people land in the GTA—pressure builds and puts a floor under values.

Strong rental demand remains evident with a record number of condominium apartment rental leases signed in the first half of 2025. Underlying housing needs persist despite transaction slowdowns in the resale market.

Don’t let someone else make the decision for you.

Understand what’s possible for you. See what that yields in terms of actual homes and carrying costs. Then decide if that’s a fit.

The clients I’ve worked with who feel good about their decisions six months later? It almost always comes down to those who thought through the purchase.

They took the time to analyze the home, the neighborhood, the neighbors. They found a home that fit their life.

Because if we do the financial due diligence upfront and buy something that works for you financially, the change you’re really looking for emotionally comes from your new bedrock.

The financial structure enables the decision. The emotional satisfaction comes from the life fit.

RE/MAX describes 2026 as “a strategic year to buy” from a market perspective. Price adjustments and lower interest rates create conditions that could encourage renewed buying activity.

But personal financial readiness matters more than attempting to call the exact market bottom. Stable employment, adequate down payment savings through tools like FHSA, and 5-10 year planning horizons trump market timing.

Approximately 10% of Canadians are ready to purchase a home in the next year. More than 50% believe the nation’s economy will trend downward. That disconnect between personal readiness and broader sentiment creates opportunity for those who focus on their actual circumstances rather than collective anxiety.

Most buyers are focused on prices and headlines — not on how changes to amortizations, insured limits, and market compression affect their buying power.
A short conversation can help you see what’s possible for your situation.

I’m hosting a free 2026 Mortgage Renewal Masterclass where I break down what lenders don’t explain in the renewal letter.