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Everyone keeps asking me when the market will turn around.

They want to know if spring will bring buyers back. They want to know if the next rate cut will change things. They want to know when prices will stabilize.

I tell them to stop watching the Bank of Canada and start watching the math.

The market bottoms when a $500,000 condo stops bleeding $400 a month. When rental income covers the mortgage payment. When investors can buy with 20% down and break even.

That’s the floor. Everything else is noise.

Take a typical $500,000 condo in the GTA right now.

You put down $100,000. Your mortgage payment runs about $2,000 a month. Add $500 for condo fees and $200 for property tax. You’re at $2,700 monthly.

That same unit rents for maybe $2,300.

You lose $400 every single month. More if you factor in insurance and maintenance reserves.

No investor buys that. The speculation game is over. Appreciation isn’t bailing anyone out anymore. You need cash flow, and the numbers don’t work.

So investors stay out. And without investors, the condo market has no floor.

Run the same condo at $400,000.

Now your mortgage drops to around $1,600. Same condo fees, same property tax. You’re at $2,300 in costs against $2,300 in rent.

Break-even.

That’s a 20% drop from current levels just to reach the point where investors stop losing money. Not making money. Just stopping the bleeding.

And we’re not there yet.

Condo prices have fallen about 13% from peak to present. The grind continues, but slowly. Month after month of small declines that add up.

I hear it constantly. “I’ll wait for the spring market.”

Spring brings more listings. Always has. But this year, you’re getting pent-up supply, not pent-up demand.

Think about what happened. Sellers tried to list in 2025. Their properties didn’t sell. They pulled them off the market and decided to wait. Now they’re all planning to relist in spring, along with everyone else who is still listed, or is about to list because they think spring is magic.

Meanwhile, where’s the demand surge coming from?

You need an income between $169,677 and $199,420 to qualify for the average-priced home in Toronto with 20% down. The median household income in Metro Toronto is $97,000.

That gap doesn’t close because the calendar flips to March.

The 2021-2022 buying frenzy pulled forward years of demand. People who would have bought in 2024 or 2025 already bought in 2022. They’re not waiting on the sidelines. They’re already in homes, dealing with their own mortgage renewals.

What we’re seeing now isn’t abnormally low activity. It’s the hangover.

Rate cuts help. They lower carrying costs for buyers and ease pressure on renewals.

But they don’t fix the investor math.

Even if rates drop another 50 basis points, that $500,000 condo still bleeds cash. Your mortgage payment might drop $100 a month. You’re still losing $300 monthly.

Investors need prices to fall, rents to rise, or both. Rate cuts alone don’t get you there.

And the Bank of Canada has signaled the rate cut cycle is done. We’re not getting the dramatic drops people hoped for.

End users still buy. People who need a place to live. People who want housing security. People who run the numbers and decide owning beats renting for their situation.

These buyers make emotional calculations. They factor in stability, inflation protection, building equity over time. They’re not looking at pure cash flow returns.

But end users alone can’t support the market. They trickle in as prices drop and affordability improves slightly. They provide some activity, but not enough to create a floor.

The floor comes when investors return. When the math works. When buying a condo to rent out makes financial sense again.

We’re not there yet.

I work with home owners every week. The conversation is always hard.

They remember what their neighbor sold for in 2022. They know what they paid. They have a number in their head for what their place is worth.

That number is wrong.

Getting sellers to accept current reality is harder than getting buyers to pull the trigger. Way harder.

No one wants to hear their property is worth less than it was three years ago. No one wants to sell at a loss or give up the equity they thought they had.

But the market doesn’t care what you think your place is worth. It cares what someone will actually pay.

And right now, only 13% of condos sell above asking price.

I send my clients monthly property reports. AI-generated estimates based on current market data.

They see their home value move in real time. Month by month. Right now that means sometimes down, occasionally flat, rarely up.

This matters because you need to know where you stand. If you’re thinking about selling, switching homes, consolidating debt, or pulling equity, you need current numbers.

Waiting until you’re ready to move and then discovering you have less equity than you thought creates problems. You can’t access money that isn’t there. You can’t make plans based on outdated valuations.

Active monitoring means you see the erosion happening. You can adjust your strategy before you run out of options.

The market stabilizes when investors return.

That happens when rental income covers ownership costs. When you can buy a property, rent it out, and at minimum break even on cash flow.

For condos, that means prices need to drop, especially if rents don’t hold. Maybe slightly less if rents climb.

For houses, the math is different. The investor calculation changes. But the principle stays the same: investors create the floor.

We’re probably looking at 2027 or 2028 before supply and demand rebalance. Before the projects that didn’t get started in 2024 and 2025 create a shortage. Before investors see opportunity again.

Until then, prices grind lower. Slowly. Painfully. Month after month.

If you’re selling, price aggressively. The market rewards sellers who accept reality early. Waiting costs you money every month in carrying costs and further price declines.

If you’re buying, you have leverage. Use it. Lowball offers aren’t rude anymore. They’re rational responses to market conditions. Make offers with conditions. Negotiate hard. Take your time.

If you’re holding, monitor your equity position. Know your numbers. Understand what you can access and what you can’t. Plan for renewals now, not a  month out.

And stop waiting for spring or rate cuts to save you.

The market bottoms when the math works. Not when the calendar says so. Not when the Bank of Canada cuts rates. When investors can buy properties and break even on cash flow.

We’re not there yet. But we’re getting closer every month.

Most people are waiting for headlines to change.
The market turns when the math does — cash flow, investor activity, and affordability.
If you want to understand where we really are in the cycle and how it affects your next move, let’s walk through it properly.