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The Bank of Canada cut rates to 2.25% in October. Relief should have followed.

Instead, I’m seeing something different. Homeowners are getting breathing room on their variable mortgages and lines of credit. Their cashflow improved. But they’re not moving.

They’re frozen.

The BoC has delivered nine consecutive rate cuts since summer 2024, effectively halving interest rates from 5.0% to 2.25%. That’s substantial. Yet homeowners with significant equity are hesitating on projects they’ve been planning for months, and buyers are still sitting on the sidelines.

The reason? Job security. Trade wars. Economic uncertainty.

They’re watching the same news I am.

Here’s what most people missed about the October decision. Some BoC members wanted to delay the cut. They wanted to wait and see how trade developments and the federal budget would unfold.

The fact that they cut anyway tells you something.

They knew the economy needed support immediately. 

Canada’s per capita GDP has declined in six of the past seven quarters while unemployment has risen. That pattern historically never occurs without a recession.

The BoC chose to act despite uncertainty. They prioritized economic support over waiting for clarity.

That decision framework matters for homeowners making their own financial moves.

Bond futures markets are pricing a 8% probability of another rate cut at the December 10th announcement. That means an 92% chance of holding steady.

I’m not expecting fireworks. The October cut was likely it for this year.

What I am watching for is their language around unemployment, GDP, inflation, and trade commentary. Those signals will matter more than the rate decision itself.

But here’s the thing. Waiting for the December announcement to make your financial decisions is backwards thinking.

Your mortgage strategy should be based on your personal circumstances. Your industry. Your job security. How necessary your planned expenditures actually are.

Rates are sitting just below 4% right now. The expectation is stability through the end of 2027, then a gradual climb back to longer-term averages of 4.5% to 5%.

If you have a mortgage need and you’re concerned about volatility, locking in a fixed rate around 4% provides predictability. It gives you clarity and calmness while we wait to see how trade wars and economic conditions unfold.

For those considering leveraging equity for investments, the calculation is more complex. The US stock market has been on a particularly hot run. But that performance is tied to political timing and current administration policies.

Borrowing to invest amplifies both returns and losses. If the market corrects, you’re not just losing gains. You’re going backwards on borrowed money.

The political risk isn’t something most brokers talk about. But it’s real.

The biggest mistake I see is homeowners treating their mortgage as a long-term payoff plan rather than a short-term strategic tool.

Canadian mortgages typically have one to five year terms. Your strategy should fit that window.

Most people obsess over amortization, trying to pay down their mortgage as fast as possible. But amortization is your biggest cashflow lever. If things are tight, you can extend it. If you’re comfortable at current rates, you can shorten it.

The mortgage is always a long-term play. But each term needs its own strategy based on current conditions and your next couple of years.

That’s the reframe that changes everything.

The BoC gave us relief. But relief doesn’t remove uncertainty. Your next move should be based on your reality, not their policy signals.

That’s where real strategy begins.

Let’s build that clarity together — book a consultation today.