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Interest rates are expected to fall.

Everyone’s talking about it.

But is riding the wave of rate cuts really your best move?

If you’re hoping to “time the market” and score savings by going variable, let’s talk strategy.

Because in today’s economy, the smartest play might be different than you think.

Now, let’s dive in.

The Bank of Canada’s key policy rate sits at 2.75%.

Many economists expect two 0.25% cuts this year, bringing the rate to 2.25% by year-end.

So, yes — rates are coming down.

But slowly.

And here’s the key insight:

Fixed rates have already dropped in anticipation of those cuts.

Likely won’t be coming down much further from here.

Most lenders are offering 3- to 5-year fixed terms in the 4.2% to 4.5% range — historically average rates.

So, the potential savings from waiting?

Smaller than you might think.

🔗 What the Bank of Canada says about rate policy

Fixed rates offer stability.

You lock in your payment. You know exactly what to expect.

That’s powerful — especially in a year filled with uncertainty.

Variable rates offer potential savings.

But those savings depend on rate cuts being delivered — and cuts that actually stick.

A difference of 0.25% on a $500,000 mortgage?

That’s about $65/month in savings.

Helpful — but is it worth the stress of unpredictability?

📘 Explore the Fixed vs Variable debate in detail

Here’s why more Canadians are leaning toward fixed:

You gain payment certainty.

Fixed rates are currently lower than variable rates.

That means your monthly payments actually start lower — not just stay predictable.

Inflation is falling, but shelter costs remain sticky.

The Bank of Canada is moving cautiously and has signaled only gradual cuts.

If your household budget is tight, or you simply value knowing your exact payment every month, fixed rates offer peace of mind — especially in a year where anything can happen.

That said, if you’re in a strong financial position, with room in your budget and a higher risk tolerance,

a variable rate could offer real upside — especially if the Bank of Canada cuts faster than expected.

Talk of a Canadian recession is growing.

If rates fall further and faster, variable borrowers could come out ahead.

But: you have to be ready to ride out bumps, including short-term payment increases.

This is where custom strategy matters most.

There’s no one-size-fits-all answer — just a clear need to weigh risk vs. reward for your specific goals.

📘Got a mortgage renewing this year?  Get renewal guidance here

Don’t want to lock in for 5 years?

A 3-year fixed may offer the best of both worlds:

Some rate protection now, with flexibility later.

You can also consider a hybrid mortgage, where part is fixed and part is variable.

It’s a great option for borrowers who want to hedge against both possibilities — rate cuts and inflation surprises.

✔ Are you planning to move or refinance in the next 2–3 years?

✔ Is your income stable enough to handle payment changes?

✔ Do you want to maximize cash flow — or minimize mental stress?

✔ What would higher payments do to your long-term goals?

This isn’t about predicting the market.

It’s about matching your mortgage to your life.

The headlines are full of rate forecasts.

But the truth? No one knows what’s next.

Even economists admit that rate timing is fuzzy at best.

And a slightly lower rate in the future won’t make up for stress, uncertainty, or missed opportunities.

Your smartest move might not be the cheapest one — it’s the one that keeps your budget healthy, your plan intact, and your stress low.

Let’s build a strategy that supports your financial confidence.

Let’s stop trying to time the market — and start planning around what you can control.

If you already own a rental and have a re-advanceable mortgage, this could be one of the most powerful financial moves you make this year.

Cash damming isn’t a magic wand.

It doesn’t erase your mortgage overnight.

But it does transform it — from a liability into a strategic tax tool.

Want help comparing choices for your situation?

Let’s walk through your options.

📞 Ready to talk strategy?