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The pandemic taught me something expensive about mortgage advice.

When rates dropped to historic lows, then shot up faster than anyone predicted, I watched clients make decisions based on gut feelings. Mine included.

That’s when I realized most mortgage recommendations are sophisticated guesswork.

As a newcomer to the industry, I noticed how unpredictable rates could be pretty early on. And I knew I needed a way to understand where things were going more clearly.

The pandemic really drove this home. Clients had opportunities to lock into decade-low rates we’d never see again. Then rates rose with a force that required completely different strategies.

Having all that information became crucial for making decisions.

I started subscribing to providers that analyze forward-looking rates and bond yields. They build models to price out inefficiencies in rates and provide frameworks to test different interest rate scenarios.

This wasn’t just another forecasting tool. These models let me weigh apples to apples, see coming risks, and present cases for different terms with actual numbers backing them up.

The data comes from where economists see things going and what longer-term risks look like. It helps shape the length of term that makes sense for each borrower.

When I sit with clients now, I start with their situation, not the spreadsheet.

First, I need a complete understanding of where they’re at. What are their plans for the property? Job security? Family plans?

Are they having kids? Do they have kids going into daycare? Are expenses going up or down?

What kind of certainty and security do they need in a mortgage payment? How long do they plan on being in that property?

Is there a move coming? A career change? Kids going off to school that might trigger restructuring their mortgage?

We build all those factors in first.

Then we look at forward pricing. I have a spreadsheet that plugs in different terms and interest rates, plus economist predictions on Bank of Canada cuts and where rates are heading.

We can compare different terms and rates to see what makes the most sense.

The disconnect becomes obvious during industry disruptions.

Take the film industry strikes. Clients working as self-employed individuals in film had solid two-year earning histories. But they had zero current income because the entire industry shut down.

Lenders were well aware of this situation.

We had to engineer workarounds. Alternative lenders looking at twelve months of earning history instead of twenty-four. Major banks averaging three years of earning power instead of two because the strikes didn’t impact annual earnings when viewed over a longer period.

The lending system is fundamentally built for stable employment patterns that increasingly don’t exist.

Take a three-year versus five-year term comparison.

The five-year locks you in completely. The three-year means we need to project where rates might be in years four and five.

We determine if there’s an advantage to going shorter based on rate outlook and expectations.

But here’s the key insight that changes everything for clients.

When clients see these projections for years four and five, they often ask why these predictions are better than educated guesses.

I tell them: these are people betting actual money.

Bond traders and economists are actually betting money on where rates will go. These are the biggest resources we have for rate projections.

The CORRA forecast curve is directionally correct more than any other public source over the long term.

When major banks slash fixed rates by 70 basis points in one week to align with bond yields, you’re seeing the same market forces at work.

No rate forecasting is perfect. But combining rate forecasting with choosing the appropriate term for someone’s situation gets the win.

When I present this analysis, clients realize it’s not me speaking an opinion. It’s backed by data, backed by other people’s gambles and bets.

I’m doing more research than just giving them some idea.

The conversation shifts from “What do you think rates will do?” to “Here’s what the people risking millions believe, and here’s how that applies to your specific situation.”

That transparency builds confidence in their decision.

Start with your personal situation. Map out your plans, security needs, and timeline.

Then look at the forward curve data. Not as gospel, but as the best baseline available.

Run the math on different terms using current market expectations.

Factor in your personal circumstances. Sometimes paying a premium for security or flexibility makes perfect sense.

But know what that premium costs you.

The goal isn’t perfect prediction. It’s making informed decisions with the best data available, tailored to your specific needs.

Most mortgage advice relies on experience and intuition. This approach uses the same information that moves billions in bond markets daily.

The difference shows up in your payments over the next five years.